Junk.

I’m playing along with the Totally Rad Show’s annual Summer Movie Wager this year.  I’m a little late as Avengers already kicked off the Summer movie season last weekend, but I already planned to have it at #1, you’ll have to trust me.

Here are the rules they follow: http://www.timetravelreviews.com/smp/Rules.html

Here is the episode of the show with their lists: http://revision3.com/trs/summer-movie-wager-2012

Here is my list:

1. Avengers

2. Dark Knight Rises

3. Amazing Spider-Man

4. Madagascar 3

5. Prometheus

6. Ted

7. Snow White and the Huntsman

8. Brave

9. Expendables 2

10. Battleship

Dark Horse:

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter

GI Joe: Retaliation

Dark Shadows

Explanation:

The top two are pretty much a given (or everyone seems to think).  I put Spider-Man much higher on the list than other people seemed to.  The original Spider-Man movies are right behind Dark Knight as the highest grossing super hero movies and I think people are underestimating it’s draw power.  More people know Andrew Garfield from Social Network than knew Tobey Maguire from anything in 2002, and Emma Stone is a huge, so I don’t buy the “no celebrity” idea some people seem to have.

Some kids movie will end up the top 5, I’m picking Madagascar 3.  Prometheus is Ridley Scott trying out outdo James Cameron, I think people have it too low, as well.  I threw Ted in because, like Madagascar, I just need a comedy somewhere on the list.  I’m looking forward to The Dictator, but McFarlane has like five shows on the air and I think people will just out of familiarity.

Seven-ten are a jumble of guesses.  Brave will be great, but it’s a new IP with a female lead, I hope it does better.  Battleship looks ridiculous but has enough explosions to make some money.  The first Expendables did way better than I ever expected, so I’m afraid this will be too low.  Snow White actually looks pretty cool from trailers and it has the girl from Twilight, so there we go.

Others seem to think GI Joe will do better, but I’m skeptical.  The first one did well, but it was basically a kids movie.  Adult nerds think this looks better because of the crazy trailers, parents will think it’s too much for their kids.  Dark Shadows is perfect for a Dark Horse.  Alice in Wonderland made insane money, Burton and Depp always make some money but this is a lesser known IP so I’m not sure what to expect.  

*EDIT* And goddammit, I forgot Men In Black…